RiskCalc v3.1 does a good job of predicting actual default rates. He served as a director of Citibank N.A. Page 1 of 11 INTRODUCTION According to the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human-induced . He is a Trustee at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of their board of overseers of the School of Engineering and Applied Science. In this role, Ms. (2), Samoa These capabilities are already helping customers better identify, measure and manage a wider range of risks leading to better outcomes.As the pace of digitization and automation continues, so has the prevalence of cyber risk. The decline in free cash flow in 2017 was primarily due to a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and the attorneys general of 21 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. (2), Republic of Moldova Van Saun currently serves as the chief executive officer and chairman of a U.S. bank. This, combined with Moodys experienced leadership and its talented and diverse workforce, will enable continued generation of enduring value for stockholders and other important stakeholders. Prior to Cisco, Ms Hill had a number of engineering roles at various technology companies. Prior to that role, Ms. Sullivan supported the Global Wealth &Investment Management business from 2015 to 2017 in a variety of positions including Controller. Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities. Firstly, as seen in Panel A of Figure 1.3, the credit quality of Swedish bond issuances has been decreasing, both since 2000 but more notably since 2009 when the market began growing substantially.For bonds issued in 2021, the average value-weighted rating was just slightly above BBB-, the lowest . There were differences in default rates across sectors. She is responsible for the supervision of global regulatory and compliance interactions, the management of regulatory examinations and all centralized compliance functions. (5), Cameroon She previously held a variety of communications positions at American Express and was a journalist for ABC News, where she earned an Emmy award. (6), Syria (1271), Europe, Middle East & Africa (2), Brazil (2), Angola Shivani holds an MBA from the Johnson School at Cornell University and a B.Sc. from the University of Chicago and a B.A. Retired Global Chairman of Financial Institutions GroupJPMorgan Chase & Co.Director since March 2019Thrse Esperdy, age 61, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. . Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for. (2), Norfolk Island (2), Bahamas Financial specialist with 5+ years of experience across quantitative research, macroeconomic analysis, and data science. (2), Tanzania, United Republic of (6), Burkina Faso The rating scale used by Moody's is: Rating Scale of Moody . Executive Vice President & General CounselJohn Goggins is Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Moodys Corporation. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer and TreasurerBooz Allen HamiltonDirector since March 2021 Lloyd W. Howell, Jr., age 55, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. (6), India Ms. Alsop holds a B.A. Her various executive roles at Cisco Systems, Inc. allow her to bring extensive leadership experience and a strong background in information technology and business operations to the Board. Mr. Fauber served as Vice PresidentCorporate Development from September 2005 to April 2009. LONDON, March 10, 2021 - Moody's ESG Solutions Group today announced the launch of Climate Solutions, a comprehensive product suite that provides market participants with enhanced risk measurement and evaluation tools to better understand, quantify and manage climate risks and opportunities.Climate Solutions incorporates physical and transition risk into Moody's best-in-class risk . (6), Rwanda The statistics over the 36 year study period should give confidence to investors in highly rated bonds. Default Trends - Global: Compendium of 2021 corporate defaults. (6), Czech Republic 19 Oct 2022 | Moody's Investors Service The speculative-grade corporate default rate will climb to 4.3% next year under our baseline forecast, up from 2.3% in September. Ms. (8), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (1584), Default Studies He currently serves on the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors. She also held various leadership positions across the organization including roles in Business Process Management and Ratings Operations, Investor Relations, Structured Finance Surveillance, Public Finance, Business Planning and Revenue Accounting. 4 Moody's Rating Methodology PDR Definition and Proposed Methodology Like Moody's long-term security ratings, corporate family ra tings (CFRs) are opinions about expected credit loss rates, i.e., the family's likelihood of default times its estimated average loss given default (LGD) over a blend of time horizons. (6), Central African Republic (2), Bahrain - Off Shore (MSFJ) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. (2), Cyprus He is a member of the New York State Bar. To help address the emerging cyber risk segment, in 2021 Moodys invested and partnered with BitSight, a pioneer in cybersecurity ratings and analytics. (2), Gambia (2), St. Vincent and the Grenadines Managing this risk is critical to informing key strategic decisions from security initiatives to capital allocation given that its reach extends across supply chains. (1), Virginia 15 Dec 2022. He served as Senior Advisor, Citigroup International from 2004 to 2006, as Chief Executive Officer of Citigroup Latin America from 2002 to 2004, Chief Executive Officer, eBusiness, Global Cash Management and Trade from 1998 to 2002 and Head of Citibank Corporate and Investment Bank, South America from 1996 to 1998. Mr. Forlenza previously served on the board of the Advanced Medical Technology Association (AdvaMed), an international medical technology trade organization.Mr. Moody's Investors Service's 34th annual default study provides statistics on defaults, losses and rating transitions for corporate bond, loan and deposit issuers over the past year. Prior to joining Oppenheimer in 2013, she held a range of senior technology and finance leadership roles at Apollo and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Retired Chief Risk OfficerCitigroup, Inc.Director since April 2011Jorge A. Bermudez, age 70, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. CONTACT OUR EXPERTS solutions covering Global Economy, Sovereigns & Sub-Sovereigns Sectors & Portfolios Companies Macroeconomic scenarios Moody's Analytics Mark joined Moodys in 2018 after more than 15 years of diverse experience in business finance, financial planning and analysis, strategy and large-scale project management. He previously served as the Companys President and Chief Executive Officer from April 2012 to December 2020, and served as the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from April 2005 until April 2012. Ms. Alsop currently serves on the Trident American Dreams Advisory Board and is a founding member of the Womens Business Resource Group at Moodys. As in most recovery periods, defaults fell relative to the prior year, with the S&P Global Ratings global speculative-grade corporate default rate falling below 2% for only the eighth time in the past 41 . (1), SGL Monitor MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. If this isn't what you are looking for, you can. (6), Equatorial Guinea In that role, she supervised the corporate investigations and anti-money laundering divisions and the companys regulatory examination program. (826), Sub-Sovereign (2), Malawi (70), New Zealand Mr. McDaniel currently is a director of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (2005-present) and a member of the Board of Trustees of Muhlenberg College (2015-present).Mr. However, MOODYS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing its Publications. 5 Moody's definition of default includes four types of credit events: - A missed or delayed disbursement of interest and/or principal; - Bankruptcy . Fauber, who is both President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, brings to the Board a wealth of experience in the financial services industry as well as an in-depth understanding of the operational and the strategic considerations for the Company. (2), Panama (1), New York (364), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) All Rights Reserved. He served as the Executive Group President, Group Leader, Civil and Commercial Group, from 2013 to 2016, as Executive Vice President, Client Services Officer, from 2009 to 2013, and as Vice President, Strategy and Organization, from 2000 to 2009. (1), Wyoming AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. He has also served as a director of several companies, contributing to his appreciation of corporate governance matters. Please complete your profile before submitting your comments. (6), Hong Kong SAR, China June 2021 . He was a member of the Texas A&M Foundation Board of Trustees (2014-2021). Above all, we are inspired to help uncover meaning amid uncertainty so individuals and organizations can thrive, which drives our ambition to be the leading provider of global integrated perspectives on risk. CLICK HERE Contact & Support Nick Kraemer Head of Ratings Performance Analytics P. + 1 (212) 438-1698 E. nick.kraemer@spglobal.com As shown in Table 1 below for non-financial corporates domiciled in North America, the three major common drivers of a score that is worse than 'b-' are as follows: Table 1: Main Drivers of weak credit assessment for North American non-financial companies. This page provides a central resource for Moodys research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, ratingtransitions and performance, and liquidity studies. From 2019 to 2021, Ms. Kazanjian held various people leadership roles at WeWork, leading into her role as Chief People Officer. Looking back on my first year as CEO, I am enormously proud of the tremendous dedication and resilience of our employees as we delivered for our stakeholders through yet another year of the pandemic. 23 Dec 2022. This rating is assigned to less creditworthy carriers and securities by the ratings . Mr. Kenney holds a BS in Accounting from the University of Scranton and is a Certified Public Accountant licensed in New York. Granularity: Contains granular information from our sister company, Moody'sInvestors Service, includingcomplete rating history at the instrument level, rating outlook and watch-list data, and credit enhancement/backing data, indicating external support. (6), China Moody's Investors Service provides investors with a comprehensive view of global debt markets through credit ratings and research. (2), Brunei Darussalam 2023 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. Default, Transition, and Recovery: Global Corporate Defaults Push Past 2021's Year-End Total S&P Global Ratings Ratings360 (FOR RATED ISSUERS) S&P Global Market Intelligence CreditPro View our upcoming events. (1), Illinois MOODY'S CORPORATION REPORTS RESULTS FOR FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2021; SETS FULL YEAR 2022 AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOKS Moody's Corporation 4Q 2021 revenue of $1.5 billion, up 19% from 4Q 2020; FY 2021 revenue of $6.2 billion, up 16% from FY 2020 4Q 2021 diluted EPS of $2.28, up 37% from 4Q 2020 and adjusted diluted EPS. Refinancing risk rises for US companies as maturities peak, interest rates increase, economy weakens. (191), Rating Transition Studies (2), Ukraine from The University of California, Berkeley in Political Economies of Industrialized Societies and earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. (1), New Jersey President, Moody's AnalyticsStephen Tulenko serves as President for Moodys Analytics. (1), District of Columbia While default risks are growing, the global speculative-grade default rate is not likely to rise sharply over the next 12 months. He is also a member of the Bretton Woods Committee (2022-present). (1), Kansas (6), Lebanon (82), Cape Verde Additionally, DRA publishes analytical research reports on topics that are of interest to broader fixed-income markets community.. (2), Netherlands Stockholders and other stakeholders may communicate with the Board, or with a specific director or directors, by writing to: 2022 Moodys Corporation, Moodys Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODYS). Prior to serving as CEO, Mr. Fauber served as Chief Operating Officer from November 2019 to December 2020, as President of Moodys Investors Service, Inc. from June 2016 to October 2019, as Senior Vice PresidentCorporate & Commercial Development of Moodys Corporation from April 2014 to May 2016, and was Head of the MIS Commercial Group from January 2013 to May 2016. The markets looked to Moodys for our expertise and insights in navigating evolving credit conditions, and many organizations sought our help in making better, more informed decisions in financing, screening, lending, insuring and investing. His team deals with all legal issues, including contract negotiation, intellectual property, employee matters, litigation and compliance with local laws. Following a year marked by one of the deepest recessions in the past 100 years, 2021 proved to be a year of better-than-expected economic recovery, despite the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. (2), Thailand (1434), Latin America & Caribbean Ms. Gurian started her career in government, where she served as a senior trial counsel in the New York County District Attorneys Office, and subsequently as the Deputy Commissioner for the New York City Department of Investigation and Deputy Commissioner and Chief Counsel for the New York State Commission of Investigation. in Statistics and Actuarial Science, both from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries. Mr. Forlenza joined BD in 1980 and served in a number of different capacities, including strategic planning, business development, research and development, and general management in each of BDs segments and in overseas roles. The Company is proud to have met its Supplier Diversity Initiative pledge to increase the representation of women-owned businesses in its supply chain, and of the commitment made in 2021 to materially increase the population of women, and U.S. Black and Hispanic / Latino leaders across the company by 2025. Governments and others are increasingly using climate analytics to better inform climate mitigation and adaptation measures, and stakeholders are seeking ways to better understand the progress and impact of corporate de-carbonization commitments. We assigned nearly 1,800 ESG Credit Impact Scores to help investors understand the impact of ESG factors on credit risk, as well as new Carbon Transition Assessments for nearly 400 issuers across the most exposed sectors.We launched Moodys ESG Score Predictor, which provides ESG estimates, carbon emissions footprint, and transition and physical risk factors for over 140 million companies, supporting customers needs around sustainable sourcing and supply chains.Ahead of COP26, we launched the Moodys on Climate Campaign which generated close to 10 million content impressions, illustrating the markets strong interest in Moodys ESG insights.In September, we closed on our acquisition of RMS, a leading risk analytics business serving the global insurance industry.This enables us both to provide a more comprehensive suite of offerings to our life, property and casualty (P&C) and reinsurance customers and to leverage RMS world-class models and expertise in weather, climate and disaster risk in providing risk solutions beyond insurance.We advanced our screening and onboarding offerings, aided by several key acquisitions.We are helping our customers digitize and automate the Know Your Customer (KYC) process, providing a streamlined workflow with proprietary company, ownership, and people data. 6 These observations became available in the late fall of 2003, after the model was finalized. Mr. Forlenza served as Chief Operating Officer from July 2010 to October 2011. In addition to serving international credit markets, we expanded our support for domestic markets and began offering local credit ratings in Brazil as part of the ongoing expansion of our Moodys Local business across Latin America. (1), B3 Negative and Lower METRICS AND TARGETS 10 SCOPE 2 GHG EMISSION REDUCTION 10. (2), Peru Howell serves as a chief financial officer and treasurer of a major business management consulting firm, which allows him to bring an extensive executive leadership experience and business management expertise that span over a number of industries and both domestic and international markets. (1), Kentucky Previously, he was a Managing Director in the M&A groups at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America and held similar roles in the M&A groups at Citigroup and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. Until his appointment as CEO, he was Moodys Chief Operating Officer and drove strategic initiatives across the company. (9), Togo Chief Executive OfficerQualtrics International Inc.Director since July 2021 Zig Serafin, age 48, was appointed a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors, effective July 14, 2021. With the inclusion of sector data and default rates and the inclusion of market data, the default probabilities are more accurate and move more responsively to reflect the change in default rates as conditions change. Head of Global Corporate AffairsChristine Elliott is Managing Director - Head of Global Corporate Affairs. (160), Recovery Studies Mr. Goggins holds a J.D. During his tenure, Mr. Platt has overseen corporate strategic planning and led over $8 billion in M&A and investments to advance Moodys global integrated risk assessment growth strategy. Mr. Kenney reports directly to the Audit Committee of Moodys Board of Directors and reports administratively to Moodys Chief Executive Officer. Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kapusta served as counsel for a large New York City law firm and held several senior roles within Deloitte, where he provided corporate and tax advice to U.S. multinationals. Exposure at default is an estimated value that predicts the amount of loss a bank may experience when a debtor defaults on a loan. (9), Maldives (1), Rhode Island While pandemic related risks to the economy remain present, we expect that the combination of vaccinations and policy support measures will support the economic recovery over the course of 2021, and the number of defaults this year will be lower than last year. Breed currently serves as the Treasurer for the Skating Club of New York. (2), Egypt (10), Eurozone Access Default & Recovery Database, Already subscribed? 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